Monday, December 12th - Busy Day

 Diesel pickups started rolling out of the campground at 6/;30 this morning. I was at the Cummins Service Center in Odessa, about 20 miles from the campground, at 8:20 AM (I drove the Flex over). I talked to a Service guy about bringing the coach over and having them at least read the Code generated by the Check Engine light. He told be to bring it over. We plan on having it over there around 8AM tomorrow. 

There is a LOT of road construction occurring here. Getting around is Midland is interesting. I20 is completely shut down (rerouted) onto what used to be frontage roads. It looks like they are adding a new I20 overpass, so that another city street can pass under I20. 

Once I returned to the coach Kathy & I left to go sightseeing. Our first stop was the Permian Basin Petroleum Museum. Kathy stayed in the car and read while I spent almost 3 hours thoroughly enjoying myself. It is a really interesting place.

Check it out at: https://www.virtually-anywhere.net/tours/petroleummuseum/index.htm The virtual tour just scratches the surface.

Some photos of all the rigs on the grounds.

They are in the process of setting this one up.

Rigs on the other side of the complex. I did a lot of walking.

This replica of the Santa Rita #1 well.  https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/santa-rita-oil-well

More rigs on the back of the property.

One of the exhibits showed a bunch of predictions about our running out of oil. Next to the prediction was later data proving how wrong the predictions were (I wonder if one day we will see something similar with all the dire global warming predictions). Below are a few of them.

 1891 – The U.S. Geological Survey says there is “little or no chance of finding oil” in Kansas and Texas. Just three years later, in 1894, Corsicana became the site of the first economically significant oil discover in Texas. Then in 1901, when Lucas #1 blew n at Spindletop, near Beaumont, that was the start of the Texas oil boom. In Kansas, the Stapleton #1 well was drilled in 1915, striking oil after only a week at a depth of 2,497 feet. It became the discovery well for the great El Dorado Field, the first oil field located by science and geologic mapping.

1909 – David T. Day of the U.S. Geological Survey sounds the national alarm, telling the public that the U.S. is running out of oil and will “be dry by 1935.” By 1935, U.S. oil production climbed to more than 2.8 million barrels a day.

1914 – The U.S. Bureau of Mines claims that the country has only a ten-year supply of oil and warns of “a crisis of the first magnitude.” Ten years after the U.S. Bureau of Mines 1914 prediction, oil production in the U.S. had nearly tripled.

1918 - David White, chief geologist of the U.S. Geological Survey, says “There are many well-informed geologists and engineers who believe that the peak in the production of natural petroleum in this country will be reached by 1921 and who present impressive evidence that it may come even before 1920.” In 1921 oil companies extract 33% more crude oil than in 1918. In 1929 they extracted twice what they did in 1921.

1939 – The U.S. Department of the Interior says that American oil supplies will last only another 13 years. In 1952, 13 years later, U.S. field production of crude oil would extract approximately 6.5 million barrels a day.

1940 – The U.S. Bureau of Mines predicts that the U.S. will exhaust its domestic oil reserves by 1954. When 1954 arrives, in the midst of postwar prosperity and the Baby Boom, it becomes clear this prediction hasn’t happened. Nor has it happened anytime since then.

1974 – The U.S. Geological Survey advises that “at 1974 technology and 1974 price” the U.S. has only a 10-year supply of natural gas. 10 year later, we still had plenty of natural gas. In fact, the American Gas Association currently calculates there is a 1,000 to 2,500 year supply  of natural gas in the U.S.

1980 – America’s first Energy Secretary, James Schlesinger, says the country’s “energy future is bleak” and warns of “chronic stringency…a permanent shortage.” With the price of oil approaching $40 a barrel and forecasters predicting $100 a barrel oil as “inevitable,” oil and gas analyst henry Groppe say the price will fall below $15/by the mid-80’s. The “permanent shortage” that Schlesinger predicted never happened, obviously. But Groppe’s prediction of oil below $15/barrel by the mid’80’s was spot on! The price of a barrel of oil briefly dropped to $14.43 in 1985.

2008 – The price of crude oil nears $150 a barrel and forecasters predict $200 is coming. But Henry Groppe says oil will be back I the $50-70 a barrel by the end of the year. Lord Ron Oxburgh, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell says, “It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive.” John Hofmeister, president of Royal Dutch Shell’s U.S. operations says that high energy prices will cause social unrest not unlike the 1992 Rodney King riots. As he has been so many times before, Groppe is right. More than right, in fact. By the end of the year the price dips below $30 a barrel. As for the other predictions….not so much. Within a few years, the shale revolution would make Lord Oxburgh’s prediction outdated. There are costs involved in hydraulic fracturing an horizontal drilling but shale oil can be produced profitably with  oil prices are as low as $65/barrel. And Hofmeister’s prediction of high energy prices causing social unrest and violence was also well off the mark.

The amount of water used to frack an eight stage horizontal well can approach 5,000,000 gallons. A half acre lawn irrigated with 0.3" of water per day for 4 months uses 488,772 gallons of water. Watering just 5 acres of lawn at this rate for one year uses as much water as it takes to frac a well. 

Hope the above didn't bore you to bad. 

Then it was over to Mr. Gatti's for their all you can eat pizza buffet. The salad bar was good, the pizzas were okay.

Then it was on to Susie's South Forty Confections.

This lady is putting Oreos on a conveyor "belt".

They are flooded with chocolate when they go through this machine.

Then she decorates them.

They went through another device. It may have cooled them for packaging.

The Midland skyline from Susie's parking lot.

The next stop was to tour a home where the Bush family  lived from 1951-55. Sadly it is closed on Monday. It is 1,400 sf. They paid $9,000 for it in 1951 ($94,000 in 2021 dollars).

Note the beautiful blue sky. I think it hit 70 her today, but the next few days will be cooler.

God is good. I pray that He blesses you and yours.